A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
